Seppo Niemi 30.10.2024: BRICS Summit in Kazan

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Seppo Niemi 30.10.2024: BRICS Summit in Kazan

General framework

The 16th BRICS Summit was taking place on October 22-24, 2024, in Kazan, Russia. BRICS is an informal international association established in 2006 at Russia's initiative. The forum gathers representatives from more than 30 states, both BRICS members and invited countries. The summit focus was on the political situation in the world as well as some key economic aspects under the Russian chairmanship with the motto "Strengthening Multilateralism for Equitable Global Development and Security."

BRICS does not have a headquarters or a charter. It is essentially an informal club or rather a platform for collaboration. The rotating presidency is held by the summit’s host country. Since 2013, the presiding country has been inviting countries close to it geographically and geopolitically to participate in the summits. Regular negotiations are held at the level of foreign ministers, finance, health, education, science and agriculture ministers, and secretaries of security councils.

The BRICS leaders exchange views on topical issues on the global and regional agenda, discuss the three main areas of cooperation outlined by the Russian chairmanship: politics and security, economy and finance, cultural and humanitarian contacts.

Representatives of almost 40 countries were taking part in the BRICS Plus/Outreach format meeting on the last day of the summit in Kazan, the Kremlin press service reported. The meeting was attended by the heads of the CIS countries, delegations from many Asian, African, Middle Eastern and Latin American countries, as well as the heads of executive bodies of a number of international organizations.

The Kremlin added that special attention is paid to the possible expansion of BRICS through the planned establishment of a new category of "partner states." Reports from the heads of the New Development Bank, the Business Council, the Interbank Cooperation Mechanism and the BRICS Women's Business Alliance were also heard.

Since 2015, the BRICS civil, parliamentary and youth forums, as well as media summits have been held. Today there are more than 20 negotiating platforms within the BRICS framework, covering such areas as energy efficiency, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, sustainable development and the activities of international financial institutions. The practical meeting and negotiation work take place within these platforms as well as in the plenary sessions. The key platforms are: Business, Economic and Financial Activities; Education and science; Culture, sports and health care. Typically, the summit presents also “the declaration”.

The summit in Kazan hosted numerous bilateral meetings of great importance between participating countries on the sidelines of the summit. Particularly interesting and important were such meetings like Russia-China, China-India, Russia-India, Armenia-Azerbaijan, meetings of Turkey as well as Russia’s meetings. This feature, important bilateral meetings, was especially characteristic this time.

Economic platform

Economic issues like the long-awaited BRICS payment system, a common BRICS currency and de-dollarization process, were largely expected to get some new light in this summit. These topics were raised during the leaders’ conversation but these are not issues for public discussion, as Putin's Aide Ushakov stated.

A single BRICS currency cannot be considered yet, this issue is not ripe yet. De-dollarization is proceeding step by step and the US dollar is still the universal currency. Russia and other states under sanctions are banned and barred from using it. Now 95% of all the external trade of Russia is denominated in national currencies.

The challenge for a unified BRICS currency is that requires thorough economic integration. Apart from high level of integration among BRICS members, the introduction of a single BRICS currency would involve comparable monetary quality and volume. Otherwise, BRICS will face even bigger problems than those that occurred in the EU. When the euro was introduced in the EU, their economies were neither comparable nor equal. It seems that we won’t truly see most of these currency changes until about 2030, which seems to be quite realistic timetable.

President Putin proposed a plan to create a BRICS-based grain exchange, which proposal was widely supported and accepted by the summit. A number of BRICS countries are among the world’s largest producers of grain, vegetables and oilseeds. BRICS-based grain exchange would facilitate the formation of fair and predictable price indicators for products and raw materials, taking into account of their special role in ensuring food security.

New members

Currently, there are 9 member countries: basic five Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and new members since the start of 2024 Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE. Saudi Arabia was officially invited to join the bloc since the beginning of 2024 but has not reportedly formalized its participation yet, although has been taking part in BRICS meetings. The head of the state, Mohammed bin Salman, was not in Kazan but Saudi’s foreign minister arrived on Oct 24 to Kazan.

In this summit BRICS decided not to admit new members but approve partner status to 13 countries. These countries are: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

In the Kazan Summit, BRICS states developed criteria for partner status. The top Iranian diplomat emphasized that a consensus among all members is necessary for any country to be admitted to the group. As Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov stated earlier, more than 30 countries have applied to join BRICS, and the prospective expansion of the group will adhere to the partner state criteria defined at the Kazan Summit.

A big topic was also that Turkey officially applied to join the BRICS. Ankara would be the first NATO member state to join the BRICS economic alliance that has been dubbed the alternative to the US dominated world of international trade.

As to new partner states, some of those countries will have a big role on the international scene of this century like Indonesia, Malaysia and Nigeria.

Declaration

The BRICS summit has adopted a final declaration that contains general assessments of the state of affairs in the world, as well as goals for the long term, President Putin said on October 23. “We have prepared a final declaration, which contains general assessments of the state of affairs in the world, summarizes the results of Russia’s chairmanship of BRICS, and defines guidelines for long-term cooperation… I would like to note that we plan to distribute it to the UN as our common joint document,” Putin said at an expanded BRICS meeting.

The document contains 134 points on 43 pages. Among the main topics are the further development of the association, the position on various global problems, sanctions, demand of the UN and WTO reform, the settlement of regional crises, including in Ukraine and the Middle East. Key points from the text, here below:

General and political issues

· Stated the importance of expanding cooperation on the basis of common interests and further developing strategic partnership in the bloc
· Called for greater participation of the least developed countries, especially in Africa, in global processes and welcomed the strong interest of the Global South in coming together
· Advocated a multipolar worldorderand reaffirmed their commitment to multilateralism and to maintaining the central role of the United Nations in the international system and reaffirmed their support for a comprehensive reform of the UN, including the Security Council
· Called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all hostages without preconditions; called for a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East; condemned Israel's attack on the infrastructure facilities in Palestine, Iran and Libanon; stressed the need for all parties to resume the Iranian nuclear deal; advocated unconditional respect for Syria's sovereignty; supported the admission of the State of Palestine to the UN within the 1967 borders.
· Took note of proposals for mediation for a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict through dialogue, expressed concern at the escalation of violence and worsening humanitarian crisis in Sudan and called for a ceasefire.
· Opposed unilateral measures imposed under the pretext of combating climate change; condemned the terrorist attacks on trans-border energy infrastructure facilities and called for an impartial investigation.

Economic issues

· Supported WTO reform and opposition to illegitimate unilateral measures and sanctions that could undermine international trade and sustainable development. Supported an open multilateral trading system with the central role of the WTO, with special treatment for developing countries.
· Welcomed the use of national currencies in financial transactions between the bloc’s member states and their trading partners.Welcomed the creation of a new investment platform that will use the infrastructure of the New Development Bank.
· Agreed to study the possibility of creating an independent cross-border settlement and depository infrastructure BRICS Clear. Supported the use of alternative currencies within the union's currency reserve pool.
· Agreed to study the creation of a single transport platform to ensure multimodal logistics between the countries of the association.
· Member states would increase the turnover of precious metals according to the Kimberley Process standards and expand the dialogue in the area of technology export control.
· Called for reform of Bretton Woods institutions, taking into account the increased representation of developing countries.
· Member states supported Russia’s initiative to create a Grain Exchange that would also cover other agricultural sectors in the future

The final BRICS declaration will be a very important step to strengthen the interaction of the organization’s members, said a representative of the UAE delegation at the BRICS summit in Kazan. “The declaration to be adopted will be an important step to strengthen our interaction, establish a universally recognized framework to face future challenges and achieve our common goals,” Foreign Minister Ahmed Ali Al Sayegh said.

Assessing the Summit

First of all, the key issue is simply the optics of the event. Russia and Putin were supposed to be “isolated” and here they are hosting the world’s top leaders on a grand stage, the largest international summit ever taken place in Russia. The BRICS meeting visually represents a roundtable of equals amongst all, which sends a powerful message for the future of global multipolarity and cooperation.

That’s not to mention it was chosen for a symbolic date, as Putin explained, with the original founding UN Charter being signed on October 24, 1945. It is clear the organizers of the BRICS summit foresee this pivotal time as being an epochal shift in the global world order similar in weight to that of the UN founding.

The story of this summit may be something like this:

· No real overt changes were taken on this summit
· No new members were yet inducted
· Not announced a major “BRICS currency”

However, thirteen “partner countries” were given such preliminary status as to prepare them for full membership in the future. There are some concrete measures already being taken or planned like a BRICS grain exchange announced by Putin, which “will promote fair and predictable price indicators for products and raw materials”. This grain exchange will later be turned into a general product exchange, which is a precursor to getting an inter-BRICS currency system to eventually work and replace the dollar.

The main focus of the summit seems to be on political, international, medium/long term developments aiming for changing international system from the current western “rules-based order” to multipolar and multilateral order, led and headed by Russia and China.

Iran was given a renewed legitimacy and dignity on the world stage, particularly as new president Masoud Pezeshkian was visiting Russia for the first time and met, on the sidelines of the summit, numerous heads of states. The similar characteristic can be mentioned about Venezuela’s president Maduro.

India’s Modi and China’s Xi made a historical contribution in their bilateral relations, achieving consensus on border disputes. This mutual understanding also imply that India moved some steps away from the US sphere of influence towards the East camp.

India's making nice with China and its shunning of the US, is an immense geopolitical shift. The two biggest countries of this planet by populations plus Russia, the biggest country by landmass, are again friendly to each other. They will coordinate their moves wherever it is in their tri-lateral interest. This shift in relations will have similar huge consequences as the recent reestablishment of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This is a disaster for the US “pivot to Asia” but the western media have barely reported on it.

Another significant event was that Armenia’s Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s Aliyev managed to clearly promote bilateral relations.

Its proactive foreign policy, emphasizing a balanced approach between East and West, forms the political rationale. On the economic side, the growing clout of BRICS countries offers Turkey opportunities to deepen its trade relations, access new export markets and attract diversified investment sources for long-term growth. Now that Turkey was accepted as a new “partner country”, which confirms Turkish way to full membership later, this may cause various tremors in the NATO structure.

Approving a partner status to 13 countries, was politically significant, strategic, long-term decision. Some of those countries will have a big role on the international scene of this century. Besides Turkey, such countries may be Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria and Vietnam.

This summit will have significant impacts on global geopolitics – possibly changing global power structures in some way. As the Kazan Declaration made clear, the multipolar reality can no longer be ignored, as new centers of power are gradually forming. The event brought together not only delegations from BRICS member countries but also from candidate countries and even from countries that have not applied to join the group but are open to cooperating in some way with the member countries.

An important aspect of BRICS is that it is an aggregating group, where all countries are welcome to cooperate to some extent. The group expressed itself jointly as a united bloc with a common political agenda, which is the creation of a multipolar order.

Helsingissä 30.10.2024, Seppo Niemi

Kirjoituksen laajempi versio on nähtävillä sivustolla:

Great power relations – Observer of Great Power Relations and Politics